OBJECTION OF SINDH TO KALABAGH DAM.
WESTERN RIVER INFLOW(Figures in MAF)
Year Indus at kalabagh Jhelum at Mangla Chenab at Marala Total inflows
1922-23 97.68 25.76 23.99 147.43
1923-24 110.04 22.23 21.04 154.01
1924-25 82.70 26.45 20.52 129.67
1925-26 77.75 20.74 20.22 118.71
1926-27 72.85 22.39 22.06 117.30
1927-28 69.74 20.69 20.41 110.84
1928-29 81.12 27.22 21.96 130.30
1929-30 76.67 23.58 23.90 124.15
1930-31 86.42 25.58 24.86 136.86
1931-32 78.06 25.30 20.4 123.40
1932-33 82.05 21.34 21.87 125.26
1933-34 91.84 26.18 26.42 144.44
1934-35 86.04 18.02 22.77 126.86
1935-36 87.43 25.80 25.86 139.09
1936-37 95.70 24.31 25.82 145.83
1937-38 87.53 21.03 22.88 131.44
1938-39 95.65 23.61 28.69 147.95
1939-40 100.05 22.09 22.64 144.78
1940-41 84.91 16.54 18.64 120.09
1941-42 91.29 19.77 22.61 133.67
1942-43 112.62 25.63 28.83 167.08
1943-44 95.36 23.26 28.37 146.99
1944-45 92.33 19.43 24.40 136.16
1945-46 105.10 20.67 24.71 150.48
1946-47 90.26 15.35 23.25 128.86
1947-48 78.32 17.82 28.53 124.67
1948-49 95.10 27.80 32.82 155.72
1949-50 101.10 24.73 27.16 152.99
1950-51 106.33 30.19 35.13 171.65
1951-52 71.92 20.57 21.31 113.80
1952-53 86.45 19.57 24.28 130.30
1953-54 93.96 22.68 26.82 143.06
1954-55 90.81 23.70 25.74 140.25
1955-56 84.27 19.31 28.94 132.52
1956-57 98.79 25.02 33.57 157.38
1957-58 85.86 32.74 32.49 151.09
1958-59 99.47 27.39 31.69 158.55
1959-60 120.09 31.65 35.05 186.79
1960-61 104.51 16.26 24.95 145.72
1961-62 93.84 17.79 28.87 140.50
1962-63 71.32 16.18 22.31 109.81
1963-64 89.36 22.01 23.69 135.06
1964-65 88.73 23.60 26.10 138.43
1965-66 89.74 26.60 22.63 138.97
1966-67 91.47 23.10 25.90 140.47
1967-68 96.98 23.90 25.30 146.18
1968-69 93.29 21.64 23.91 138.84
1969-70 87.50 24.22 22.55 134.27
1970-71 71.52 15.35 19.30 106.17
1971-72 71.74 15.35 18.85 104.14
1972-73 79.58 24.96 21.54 126.08
1973-74 106.69 26.43 30.96 164.08
1974-75 63.19 16.32 18.23 97.74
1975-76 81.29 25.38 32.84 139.51
1976-77 81.44 24.64 29.18 135.26
1977-78 81.23 19.63 26.59 127.45
1978-79 106.58 24.62 32.27 163.47
1979-80 86.99 20.72 24.29 132.00
1980-81 86.76 23.44 26.19 136.39
1981-82 89.94 22.59 28.09 140.62
1982-83 73.24 21.32 27.79 122.35
1983-84 93.91 26.22 29.82 149.95
1984-85 92.17 18.68 24.08 134.93
1985-86 75.83 17.64 24.23 117.70
1986-87 91.11 27.84 27.70 146.65
1987-88 88.03 27.83 25.21 141.07
1988-89 104.73 23.98 32.69 164.40
1989-90 81.20 24.71 25.42 131.33
1990-91 108.73 27.39 29.98 166.10
1991-92 112.18 31.11 28.80 172.09
1992-93 109.90 32.00 27.78 169.68
1993-94 81.77 22.71 23.00 127.48
1994-95 109.12 26.48 30.20 165.80
1995-96 98.91 28.08 31.87 158.86
1996-97 100.34 29.04 31.88 161.26
1997-98 83.08 24.01 28.08 135.17
1998-99 94.70 21.83 27.90 144.43
1999-00 87.15 14.44 22.95 124.54
2000-01 67.41 12.57 20.01 99.99
2001-02 64.98 11.96 19.04 95.98
2002-03 72.64 17.02 23.64 113.30
Avg:1922-2002 89.48 22.80 25.76 138.04
Avg:1976-2002 89.78 23.06 26.99 139.82
Maximum 1959-60 120.09 32.74 35.13 186.76
Minimum 2001-02 63.19 11.96 18.23 95.98
4 out of 5 years’ flow of 3 western rivers is ………………..………….. 124.54 MAF
Province Kharif Rabi Total
Panjab …… …… 37.07 18.87 55.94Sindh* …… …… .33.94 14.82 48.76
NWFP …… …… 3.48 2.30 5.78
Baluchistan …… …… 2.85 1.02 3.87
Total …… …… 77.34 37.01 114.35
NWFP:ungauged civil …… …… + 1.80 + 1.20 + 3.00
Canals above rim station
Total …… …… 79.14 38.21 117.35
Includes already sanctioned urban and industrial uses for metropolitan Karachi.
2. The “Katcho” will die:
Passing through the middle of Sindh, travelling 600 miles (1000 km) north to south in a zigzagging course, Indus inundates a large area on both of its sides at an average 5 miles (8 km) wide. This area, known as “Katcho”, has turned into a very rich fertile land due to aeons of nutritional silt deposition and excellent drainage. The area of “Katcho” is about 1.9 million acres.
Over the ages, a thich riverine forest has grown on 598,880 acres (240,000 hectares) of katcho (according to Sindh Forest Department’s comprehensive Plan for Massive Afforestation in Sindh 1995-2025”) that boasts of innumerable varieties of trees and shrubs including the famous populous Euphratica (Bahan in Sindhi) which is extensively used for making the sindhi folk wood work, the exquisite color inlaid furniture, Jandi. A rich grazing lan of 1.3 million acres (0.52 million hectares) extends throughout the length of “katcho”. About 600,000 acres (240,000 hectares) of this fertile land is brought under plough to raise verious cash crops, lintels and oil bearing seeds.
The importance of “Katcho” for the economy of Sindh cannot be over emphasized. There has not been a direct survey of “Katcho” area separately but the human population of “Katcho” as well as that of cattle, buffaloes, goats/sheep and poultry is roughly estimated as follows:
Population Per Per Sq. Total Katcho
One-family Mile (3000 sq.miles)
People 8 32 100.000
Cattle 4 150 450.000
Buffaloes 4 150 450.000
Goats/Sheep 6 225 675.000
Poultry 20 750 2,250,000
The agricultural produce, milk, meat and poultry not only sustains about on million inhabitants of “Katcho” but is a source of food for those numerous cities of Sindh that fall on both sides of river Indus.
Another about 200,000 people are beneficiries of the timber trade of the 598,500 acre riverine forest. The firewood is a rich source of renewable energy for all villages and cities, where gas has not yet been supplied. Yet another about 300,000 people are directly dependent upon river Indus for their livelihood like fishermen and boatmen.
The “Katcho” depends entirely upon the inundation of Indus. Whenever the quantity of water flowing down the river is not sufficient to submerge the “Katcho”, the crops, food and fodder are all affected and even the wells for dirnking water run low.
The severe drought yea of 1985-86 is a case in point when “Katcho” was not inundated by Indus forcing many families to migrate to other areas for want of food and work.
Repeated years of drought or unnatural shortages caused by diversion or damming of the waters of River Indus will result in severe damage to the “Katcho” as follows:
i. It will lead to loss of surface moisture followed by soil degradation, salinity, wind erosion and consequent turning of the lans into a desert.
ii. The soil erosion causes decline of succesion of plants so that over a period of 50 drought years the whole natural forest belt will become extinct.
iii. One hundred thousand people depending upon “Katcho” for their sustenance will face social and economic ruin and conseqent migration.
iv. Another 200,000 people (including the family members of those attached to timber trade) will be adversely affected.
v. Sindh will pay an enormous cost in the shape of loss of dairy, meat & poultry products as well as livestock and poultry stock.
vi. Drought years cause drying up of wells and ponds in “Katcho” causing severe hardship for humans and animal alike.
3. Mangrove forests are not “wastelands”:
The mengrove forest in Indus delta is spread over 650,000 hectares) and is the sixth largest mangrove forest in the world. Fed through the nutrients carried by 400 million tons of silt by River Indus each year, (before the dams and barrages were constructed), the mangrove forest estuaries are the most procuctive forests, protecting and nurturing thousands of botanical, aquatic and wildlife species.
According to the International Union of conservation of Nature, (I.U.C.N 1991) “The mangroves are the principle components of the delta ecosystem, without them and the nutrients they recycle and the protection they provide, the other components of the ecosystem will not survive. Mangrove estuaries provide ideal nursery grounds for many commercial fish species specially prawns”.
The other wildlife species supported by mangroves is propoises, jackals, wild boars, reptiles, migratory fowl birds and 3 species of dolphins. If the mangrove habitat is destroyed, the continued existence in the Indus delta of all those will be threatened (IUCN, Korangi ecosystem project 1991).
IUCN estimates the mangrove estuaries (like those of Indus delta) as being 4 to 5 times more productive than tropical estuaries without mangroves.
Proper studies have not been mounted but perhaps it is fair to assume that compared to assume that compared to agricultural land, acre for acrs, the mangrove estuaries are roughly 3 times more productive in economic terms. Significant economic benefits of mangrove forest are:
i. It is a timber resource for buildings and fuel wood for the vast population living in coastal areas.
ii. It is fodder and grazing land for cattle, goats and especially camels. In the coastal areas of Sindh a fine breed of camels is raised for whom marshlands provide a rich grazing place.
iii. Fisheries within the delta area:
44 species of fish reside in deltaic area e.g.
Shades (Hilsa) (Palla)
Flat Fish (Sole
Sea Cat Fish (Subghara Khagga)
Silver Whiting (Bhambhor)
Black & White pomfret (Poplet)
Large Spanish Mackerel (Surmai)
Long Tail Tuna-6 (Dawan)
Marine Prawns (Jhinga)
iv. Fisheries using the delta as a nursery: Most species of fish, especially prawns, pass some part of their life in the mangrove estuaries. Pakistan earned Rs 2.25 billion from the export of 0.4 million tons of fish (1989 figures). Out of this 242,000 tons of fish worth more than 1.5 billion Rupees, is netted on the coasts of Sindh.
v. More than 84,620 fishermen are employed on about 2,730 trawlers and boats in the business of catching coastal fish (1989 figures). All of them in one way or the other owe their sustenance to the mangrove estuaries. (10 year’s Agriculture Statistics of Sindh 1980-81 to 1989-90, by Bureau of Statistics, Sindh).
vi. Coastal protection: Sindh coast remains protected from wave erosion due to the mangrove forest. Without the forest to break the force of waves the 200 miles (300 Km) long coast could easily fall back progressively, as presently beubg exoeruebced bt Bangladesh.
vii. Yet another advantage of the mangrove forest is the protection of existing ports, Karachi port and port Qasim, from siltation. The mangrove forests have a tendency to filter sand rom the sea water. If allowed to enter the sea ports, the sand could easily choke the ports necessitating costly dredging process.
It may be noted that development of natural forests or mangrove forests is an incremental process that takes 50 to 60 years for the trees to mature. When the soil is subjected to erosion and nutrient recycling becomes difficult due to shortage of fresh water, reforestation becomes much more time consuming and the forests start to die. This is what is now happening to the natural forests on both sides of River Indus and the mangrove estuaries in coastal areas of Sindh. WAPDA keeps insisting in its defence that more salt resistant verities of mangroves can, and should, be introduced a remedy will be prohibitively costly and its success not necessarily assured.
Reproduced below is the letter from an American, Mr. William.T.Orvosh, that appeared in letters to the Editor, Daily Dawn, July 13, 1996 which graphically sketches the thinking of the people of Sindh.
Mangroves and Dams (Letter Daily DAWN Karachi July 13, 1996)
The letter from Dr. Surayya Khatoon, “would they survive”, (DAWN, July 9) is a well informed and timely exposure of two important issues that are far more inter-electric development. The critical role played by mangrove forests in coastal ecology has only recently been realised. Not too long ago some influential, but uninformed “scholars” advocated the destruction of mangroves, contending that they represented a waste of “valuable” coastal lands; they did so without a single shred of scientific evidence supporting their position. On their advice, whole mangrove forests have been destroyed in the name of “development; the catastrophic result of this folly was felt almost immediately; drastic reduction in the survival of juvenile marine life (shrimp, and many fish, spend their juvenile and adolescent phases in the protection of mangrove forests), destructive erosion, loss of the bio-filtration function provided by the forests; and the realisation that the acid sulphate soils associated with mangrove habitats are not conducive to conversion to “agricultural” use, although the natural biological productivity of mangrove forests surpasses anything humans are likely to do on a per acre basis.
The US Army corps of Engineers, plan to bisect the State of florida with a canal was cancelled, after conclusive proof that the fresh water flows critical to mangrove health on the Florida coast would be disrupted, the entire Gulf of Mexico fishery would have been placed in jeopardy, as well as much of the life in the great Everglades swamp. At first, the corps Engineers, dismissed envirnmentalist’s complaints as unfounded, and alarmist. However, as the evidence mounted (hard, scientific evidence available to anyone), even the most vocal supporters of the canal were convinced that a horrific mistake was about to be made.
Before Pakistan makes the mistake of interrupting the flow of the Indus for any reason, or degrading the quality of water through uncontrolled pollution, it should consider the expensive lessons learned by others. Those who destroyed their mangroves in the name of “development” are now feverishly replanting them at tremendous cost. The consequences of mangrove destruction are immediate, and almost irreversible in the near-to-middle term. Natural mangrove development is an incremental process; new trees grow in the soil stabilished by their ancestors. When the soil has benn removed through erosion, and there areno mature trees to provide support, reforestation is time-consuming and expensive, as certain ill-informed people have come to realise, after destroying nature,s gift to them.
I am not anti-development unless it is being done without a consideration for nature; nor am I dictating energy and environmental policy to Pakistan. What I am doing is suggesting that you learn from the mistakes of others. We, in the United States, now realise what a large-scale hydro-electric dam really costs. Some of the most magnificent wonders of nature lie sub-merged behind out system of dams. The colorado River, which used to flow to the sea, has disappeared, wiping out Mexican fishing villages, and denying a substantial area of Northwest Mexico of its fair share of the colorado’s water. The United States will be making reparations to Mexico forever.
Vast dams, which evolve into very expensive waterfalls after they fill with silt, are now becoming unpopular, with smaller, with smaller, mini and micro-hydro projects offering lower cost, less destructive alternatives; small-scale hydro-electic works are booming in the United States. Displacement of people and the irreversible destruction of the land and forests associated with large-scale hydro electric development are costs that do not justify the return, especially if the interrupted and de-silted flow also interferes with the health of mangrove forests, as it surely would in Pakistan.
If the money spent on a single giant dam were spent on education, health, population control, and viable energy alternatives, the demand for dam’s electicity would cease to exist.
Swamps, bogs, tangled forests, jungles, insects and snakes are not romantic things. To the uninformed, and to people bent on “development”, they don’t seem very useful. However, before the “developers” are allowed to satisfy their impulses, they should remember who put these things here in the first place. In the light of current knowledge, only the ignorant or the arrogant would wilfully undertake projects resulting in the endangerment of the mangrove environment.
Ignorance and arrogance: two commodities whose marginal usefulness is vastly ouweighed by their great expense.
William.T. Orvosh
WILLIAM T.ORVOSH, Karachi.
The most thought provoking sentence in Mr.Orvosh’s letter is about “the hard scientific evidence avaiable to anyone”. This evidence could very easily be obtained by WAPDA and the officials of Punjab to compute whether Kalabagh or any other dams on River Indus is in the natinal interest. But unfortunately, rather than search for evidence, WAPDA and the representative of Punjab deliberately destroyed the chances of undertaking a World Bank funded study to determine just that.
4. The greatest threat from Kalabagh dam is salinity:
By far the most serious disadvantage of Kalabagh dam is the salinity the dam will induce from the exposed salt range of Pothwar Plateau.
To comprehend this enormous but least talked about disadvantage, the geophysical and geological environment of Kalabagh as well as the mechanics of surface water salinity will need to be understood.
i. Geographical and geological environment of kalabagh:
According to Mr.Saeed.Arashed in his excellent treatise, “kalabagh Dam project a Scientific Analyeses”, the dam site is located at the southern terrace of Pothwar Plateau while the surface lake extends northward. About 2000 meters below the plateau there is a huge layer of Rock Salt (600 to 2000 meters thich) which was perhaps the bedof an ocean as deep as the Pacific about 570-230 million years ago. The geological changes brought about by nature over the history of the world saw the ocean disappear and the layer of salt being topped by other geological formations. These formations between the pre-Cambrian ocean flor and the present day floor of the proposed Kalabagh reservoir can be divided by 10 strats.
Stratum 0. This is taken as the floor of the dam.
Stratum 1. The stratum is 0 to 600 meters thich laid about 10,000 years back or later, mainly since the Second Ice Age. It consists of coarse stones, conglomerates, sandstone and some clays.
Stratum 2. This stratum consists of clays, sandstone, coal and limestone. In age they range from 6 to 65 million years. Thickness varies from 200 to 600 meters.
Stratum 3. The beds were laid 65 to 135 million years ago. The thickness is about 180 meters. The stratum consists of sandstone and argillites of detrital origin.
Stratum 4. The rocks in this stratum were formed between 135 to 195 million years back. These are limestone and dolomites about 200 meters in thickness.
Stratum 5. The stratum is significant from viewpoint of pertoleum geology. The beds are 250 to 300 meters in thickness and consist of lime stones and marls rich in fauna. These were laid back about 195 ti 250 million uears back.
Stratum 6. The stratum laid between 250 to 300 million uears back consists of argillites and sandstone varying in thickness from 20 to 200 meters.
Stratum 7. This consists of glacial conglomerates about 200 meters thick laid around 300 to 400 million years back.
Stratum 8. The beds in this stratum are argillites, limestone and sandstone, 200 to 600 meters thick, laid between 400 to 500 million years back.
Stratum 9. The next lower stratum is the formation, 600 to 2000 meters thich of rock salt 500 to 5000 million uears ago on the floor of an ocean which could have been as deep as the Pacific today.
Stratum 10. The lowest stratum corresponding to the ocean flor, is the Pre-Cambrian basement, more than 5000 million years old.
The harmless geological formation of Pothwar Plateau became complicated due to the folding of salt strate into the shape of a bowl. About 210 million years ago movem ent of tectonic plates forced the salt formation to fold over into the shape of a bowl so that the northern edge of the bowl appeared close to the Kalachistta Range north of Kalabagh dam reservoir while the southern rim appeared in the form of the famous Salt Range, south of Kalabagh dam site. River Indus bifurcates the southern rim so that kohat Range falls on the west and Khewra Range on the east. Murree hills is thought to have come into being due to the lifting up of the pre-Cambrian ocean floor in the same tectonic plate movement.
The layer of salt rock sitting 2000 meters under the Kalabagh dam site is perhaps of no consequence as the vertical permeability of water is not likely to reach that level. However there are salt deponsits and alkali brines at low to medium depth especially near the rim of the bowl. The brines tend to be at high pressure and free flowing. Under the tremendous load of the dam structure and tons of stored water, the salt solution are likely to rise in vast sheets to mix with the water of the reservoir.
ii Surface water salinity:
Surface salinith can be described as deposites of carbonates, chlorides or sulphates of sodium, calcium and magnesium on the top eight inches of the soil.
Without going into the complexities of the subject it can be explained that waters of the Indus River System carry a variety of such salts that are left on the surface of irrigated lands along with silt while irrigastion water filters down or evaporates. When the contents of salt deposits increase to about 2.5% the productivity of the land is visibly impaired and when it reaches a level of 7.0% on biological life is possible.
Salts can also be deposited when brackish or saltish sub soil water reaches the critical level of 0-5 feet and then, through capillary action, rises up to mix with the top soil.
Nazir Ahmed, in his commendable work “Ground Water Resources of Pakistan”
Indus Water Salinity
Observation Salinity gms/tonne Difference
Ghaziabad 138 ……….
Attock 164 26
Kalabagh 216 52
D.I.Khan 226 10
D.G.Khan 242 16
Chechran 260 18
It should be noted that the quantum of salinity between Attock and Kalabagh (52 gms/tonne) us 100% more than between any other 2 points observed. The billion tone of stored water of Kalabagh dam is likely to exert tremendous pressure on alkali brine strata which will then rise in vast sheets to mix with the water of the reservoir increasing its saline content to unacceptable limits.
Nazir Ahmed has further given a very tought provoking example of salinity by Indus River water.
Quote “Suppose 2.0 inches of soil crust was formed in a 100 years or every year a deposit of 0.02 inches took place. The existing sediment content of river water during flood is 0.2% so that to deposit 0.02 inch of soil, sediment water of 10 inches depth on a unit area is needed. If the water contains 200 particles per million (PPM) of salts, then in one year on square foot of land will have 0.0104 lb. of salts.
The calculation being:
10x1.0x (6.25/1,000,000)x 200 = 0.0104 lb
In one hundred years, building up of 2.0 inches of soil on one square foot will have about 14 lb. of soil, assuming 87 lb. to a cubic foot, and 0.0104x100=1.04 lb. of salts. The soils will thus have 7.2% salts on which no biological life is possible.” Unquote.
Saeed.A.Rashid in his most informative book “Kalabagh Dam Project, A Scientific Analysis” has stated the problem in an alternate form.
He states that if 10 inches of water that carry 200 PPM of dissolved salts leave behind 4.72 gms of solids per cubic foot and if 10 inches of water carrying 200 PPM of solids is given to a piece of land and is allowed to soak and to evaporate in the same pattern as is practised in our canal irrigated agriculture, then 4.72 grams of salt will be deposited in each cubic foot of soil.
Given the salinity of water of River Indus at D.I.Khan at 226 PPM, for every 3 soaking per year, or 30 inches of water, about 16 gram of salt will be added to each cubic foot. In 30 years about 2.54% salts will be added to the top 8 inches of soil making the damage to crop field perceptible.
Mr. Saeed advances the interesting theory that perhaps that is the reason why the crop yield has started declining in the comman areas of the canal system below D.I.Khan, 30 years after the commissioning of the barrage system when maximum coverage is achieved.
Normally salt deposits are removed from the surface by leeching or extensive watering which is expected to dissolve the salts and filter them underground. But in this case more canal water will mean more salts added resulting in accelerated damage to crop yield.
These abservation, if correct, indicate a very grave threat of destructive salinity to all agricultural lands below kalabagh site if a dam were to be built. Wisdom therefore demands that all parameters in calculation above be verified and if found correct, construction of a dam at kalabagh shuld be given up as a most detrimental step against the agriculture of all of Sindh and most all of the siraiki belt.
This should further be seen In the backdrop of an estimated 24 million acres (9.6 million hectares) of irrigated land out of a total of 34.5 million acres (14 million hectares) of irrigated land in Pakistan, already bearing higher salt content than desired.
5. Pollution of the Water Resource:
Indus River System is the main source of irrigation and drinking water for most of the 130 million people of Pakistan. Degradation in the quality of water resourced not only ffects the crop yield of agriculture but also has a direct bearing on the health of the people, especially those of the lower Indus Plain, Sindh.
i. Irrigation returns carring surface salts and pesticides. It is relevant here to mention that Pakistan uses about 25,000 tons of organic phosphorous and organo-chlorine pesticides annually. These pesticides being non biodegradable, a large portion of harmful poisons wash into Indus River System.
ii Human and industrial effluent from about 40 cities and hundreds of villages situated on the bank of Indus River adds to the pollution of river water enormously. With increase in population and industrial activity and with non existent sewage water treatment facilities, the approximately 20 million people living in the major cities on River Indus like Chashma, D.I.Khan, Taunsa, D.G.Khan Guddu, Sukkur, Rohri, Hyderabad, kotri and hundreds of villages, cause pollution of water resources of the Indus River System to hygienically unacceptable limits.
The decreasing flow in Indus and the warm and dry weather of lower Indus plain further concentrates the pollutants of Indus River.
No proper research has been carried out on the quantum as well as effects of pollution of Indus River waters but the rising trend in renal, colic and intestinal diseases in Sindh indicates a nexus between polluted dirnking water and the diseases that must be measured in terms of human misery and economic cost to the population.
6. Natural Lakes – Bird Sanctuaries:
Over the million of years that the Indus River has flowed through Sindh, it has changed its course a number of times. The 400 million tons of silt carried by the river per year progressively settles at the bottom of the river raising its level so that at a critical point it changes its path to one lower than before. In the recorded history, Indus River has changed its course 7 times, Moen-jo-daro in Larkana distict and Bhambore in Thatta are two of the many large and prosperous cities once on the bank of Indus, that lost their economic clout and died a slow death.
The changing course of Indus has left thousans of small and large depressions that become natural lakes when filled with water. Sindh is therefore home to some of Asia’s largest natural lakes like Manchar in distict Dadu, keenjhar, Heleji & Hedero in Thatta, Chotiari in Sanghar & innumerable smaller lakes spread all over the province.
Manchar is an inundation lake that fills up during flod season. It is a 50 sq. miles (150 square k m) lake that stores more than 0.5 MAF of water. Keenjhar in Thatta is approximately 40 sq. miles (120 square km). It is the major source of dringking water and a favourite picnic spot for karachiites. Chotiari in Sanghar is another inundation lake that can store 0.4 MAF water and is being prepared to play a major role in irrigation of the area.
There is growing awareness among people to commercially raise fish in smaller lakes of distict Badin and Thatta and as far as Larkana and Jacobabad up north. With increase in population and corresponding decrease in production of meat, fish has a potential of becoming a major sourece of protein in the coming years.
The most interesting aspect of the inundation lakes in Sindh, however is that these lakes are winter and summer home to thusands of migratory birds from kazekhistan and Siberia who fly thousands of miles using a coreidor known as “Indus Flyway” to miraculously navigate into southern Sindh. The majestic and awe inspiring phenomenon of self preservation is recognized as a marvel of nature by all nature lovers the world over who descend in droves to Keenjhar, Heleji, Hadero and Chotiari so as to see and watch nature closely.
So far bird watchers have reported 222 types of birds inhabit the lakes. The wildlife department of Sindh has printed a brochure “Haleji Lake” enumerating all the species and have declared the lakes as wildlife santuary.
(List of birds Appendis-9)
7. Salt Water Intrusion:
70 percent of annual water flow of river Indus takes place from June to Septermber when snow melts in the Himalayas and korakoram Rango combines with monsoon season. The remaining 30 percent flow is spread over the 8 months period from October to May.
The flow of water in Indus effectively checks salt water intrusion from the Arabian ocean into lower flod plains of Indus. Thus as the storage and consumption of water has continued in the northern plains, sea water has started flowing up in to Indus and its estuaries.
With the reverse flow of salt water into the southern part of Sindh, the sweet water aquifer gets contaminterd, adding to salinity of irrigated lands.
In summer, the tidal and monsoonal vector from the Arabian Sea is SW to NE. In this period salt water intrusion is experienced up to Thatta 75 km upstream of Arabian Sea. Chloride levels at Thatta and Gharo get very high and are a cause of agricultural loss to the area.
In Winter the vector reverses to NE-SW direction so that salt water intrusion recedes and ground water aquifer recharges with fresh water.
This is evident From WAPDA Annual Report (1988-89) page 24, where in, the Provincial depth of the water table of Indus Plains is given. The post monsoon table (Oct-87) for Sindh indicates 77% area having a water table within 0-10 feet of the ground level and the pre-monsoon wate table (April-May 1988) indicates 79% of the area to be within 0-10 feet, showing thereby that 2% more land in Sindh gets a raised water table due to sea water intrusion into ground water aquifer when the flow in Indus is at its lowest level. Needless to say that the excess 2% waterlogged land in pre-monsoon season pertains all to district Thatta and Badin in the south of Sindh.
A symposium conducted by Pakistan National Institute of Oceanography and National Science Foundation in Oct 1982 in karachi established that salt water intrusion into the plains of lower Sindh is directly related to the decrease of flow in River Indus.
The climatic change that the world is experiencing and the raise in temperature by 1.5 degrees celsius that is being pedicted by the year 2025 will also raise the sea water level by 1.5 meters (5 feet) (World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Report, 1989).
Until adequate water is released to Indus downstream of Kotri, sea water intrusion combined with raised level of the Arabian Sea will make Thatta, Badin and southern parts of Hyderabad Distict waterlogged marshlands.
8. The Exorbitant cost:
According to PC-II, stage III of kalabagh Dam Project:-
“The total project cost covering civil and power facilities as estimated by the consultants at June 1987 prices will be about Us $ 5.153 billion including interest during construction, customs duties and taxes and price contingencies”. This enormous amount does not include the reconstruction of 50 km road linking Atoock with Naushera and the 6 rail and road bridges that will all be submerged by kalabagh Dam reservoir.
The price escalation since 1987 and deprectiation of Pakistani currency against the mighty US Dollar must have further escalated the cost of kalabagh Dam. Updated estimates have not been made public but it is a safe bet to suggest that construction of kalabagh will cost anywhere between $ 8-10 billion, or more than 25% our present external debt.
When the economy of the country is reeling under external and internal debt of more than Rs 2 Trillion, when each working Pakistani is under debt to the tune of Rs 60,000 when the balance of payment is more than $ 3 billion in the red annually, when Prim Minister of Pakistan has been appealing to the general public to donate freely to reduce the national debt and when the country is faced with serious threat of defaulting on its foreign loans, prudence demands that investing in a $ 10 billion project must be thought many times over before the whole country and all its people are committed. $ 10 billion or Rs. 450 billion approximately, is about one and a half time the Pakistani budget. This amount could go a long way in correcting the many kinks in the agriculture and irrigation of Pakistan saving much more water and producing much more grain than promised by KBD.
9. Acre for acre Sindh gets less water than Punjab:
Federal Minister Syeda Abida Sultana recently remarked that “Sindh was drowining while Punjab was short of water”.
As far back as in 1972, Chaudri Anwar Samma, Punjab Minister for Revenue, Irrigation & Power wrote in a letter to the Government of Sindh and Government of Pakistan that “the depth of the water per acre area of irrigated land was 2.7 ft in Punjab and 4.3 ft in Sindh”.
Both these declaration just about explain the mindset of the officials of Punjab and WAPDA about the comparative water availability in the two provinces. Facts are however a little different.
Total cultivable area in Pakistan is 86 million acres out of which cultivable area in canal command is 34.5 million acres. Of this also, only 28.67 million acres is actually under plough, according to following table:
Province Total cultivable Area (M.Acre) Canal Command Area (M.Acre) Actual Canal Irrigated Area (Million Acres
Panjab 36.40 (42%) 19.5 (56%) 16.41 (57%)Sindh 24.50 (31%) 12.2 (36%) 10.00 (34.9%)
NWFP 7.60 (9%) 1.8 (5%) 1.32 (4.6%)
Baluchistan 15.50 (18%) 1.0 (3%) 0.94 (3.2%)
86.0 (100%) 34.50 (100%) 28.67 (100%)
Source: Report of Natinal Commission on Agriculture (1988).
ii. The Indus Water Accord of 1991 has sanctioned waters to the provinces of Sindh and Punjab as under.
Province Kharif Rabi Total
Panjab …… …… 37.04 18.87 55.94
Sindh …… …… 33.94 14.82 48.76
iii. Most of the subsoil water in Panjab is sweet. The percolation from the river and canal beds that seeps underground charges the sweet aquifer to the tune of 40 to 50 MAF every year. Rightly concerned that this charging of aquifer will raise the water table and will cause widespread water logging, WAPDA installed about 15,000 public sector tube wells, especially in th Chhaj and Rechna Doabs, to maintain a safe water table. Combined with another 350,000 tube wells in the private sector spread all over Punjab the total output of subsoil water for irrigation purpose is above 40 MAF per year. This quantum of 40 MAF must be included in the water availability table, especially because WAPDA’s exercise of installing and operating the tube wells since 1960 has cost billions of rupees that was paid for by all the 4 provinces, through the Government of the Federation.
As against the blessing of the aquifer of rechargeable sweet water in Pnjab, Sindh is literally sitting on sea water Except for a very narrow strip of land in rohri canal command area, most of underground water in Sindh is as saltish as the water of the Arabian Sea. Seepage of canal water into the aquifer causes immense harm by coupling salinity with the menace of water logging.
iv Punjab receives substantial rain in summer and winter as against less than 5 inches of rain per year on the parched lands of Sindh. The rains in the winter of Punjab amount to about 1.2 MAF and that of summer to more than 8 MAF. For irrigation purposes, the finely spread rain is many times superior to canal supplied water as it does not have the element of field losses experienced through canal irrigation.
Tabulation of water availability for irrigation in the Canal Command Area (CCA) in Sindh and Punjab should therefore read:Seasonal Water Availability per Acre of CCA in Punjab and Sindh (Kharif)
Panjab Sindh
1 CCA in Million Acres 20.13 12.75
2 1991 Water Accord Allocation (MAF) 37.07 33.94
3 Usable Ground Water at Water Course 13.27 0.24
4 Equivalent at Canal Head (MAF) 17.65 0.32
5 Rainfall Contribution Field (MAF) 7.94 0.58
6 Equivalent at Canal Head (MAF) 19.21 1.40
7 Total Water Supply at Canal Head (MAF)(2+4+6) 73.93 35.66
8 Water Availability in feet, per Acre of CCA (7-1) 3.67 2.80
(Rabi)
Panjab Sindh
1 CCA in Million Acres 12.22 7.88
2 1991 Water Accord Allocation 18.87 14.82
3 Usable Ground Water at Water Course (MAF) 10.85 0.19
4 Converted at Canal Head (MAF) 14.43 0.25
5 Rainfall Contribution (MAF) 1.21
6 Equivalent at Canal Head (MAF) 2.93
7 Total Water Supply at Canal Head (2+4-6) 36.23 15.07
8 Water Supply in feet, per acre of CCA (7-1 2.96 1.91
(It should be noted that Canal Command Area (CCA) of Punjab and Sindh, as calculated by Sindh government and appearing in the table above, is not much different than CCA estimated by National Commission on Agriculture 1988, appearing in previous pages, in that, for Punjab it is 20.13 against 19.5 Million Acres and for Sindh it is 12.75 against 12.2 Million Acres. However usable ground water pumped out in Punjab and estimated by Sindh government in 1983 is 13.77 MAF while today, in 1997, some 350,000 tube well draw as much as 40 MAF from subsoil resources, this will increase crop delta of Punjab (water per acre of CCA) by a sizeable one acre foot).
These calculation can be checked for accuracy to determine which province is getting what share of water between Sindh & Punjab Meanwhile the only point to remembr is that for irrigation & drinking water needs River Indus is the single source of water available to Sindh as against Punjab that has 23 MAF water of Jehlum, 23 MAF water of Chenab, 40 MAF of subsoil water per year, more than 9 MAF of rain water and off and on water from the 3 eastern rivers.
Syeda Abida is nor right when she says that Sindh is drowing unless she means that Sindh is drowining in water logging and salinity. She is also not right about Punjab being starved of water since the crop delta of Punjab gets far more water than Sindh.
SINDH DOES NOT TRUST PUNJAB OR WAPDA.
The biggest single factor of Sind’s opposition to Kalabagh Dam is the mistrust and suspicion with which Sindh views all efforts of Punjab and WAPDA to tap the waters of Indus.
Perhaps such suspicions rise from the deeper apprehensions of the people of Sindh that Punjab wishes to politically and economically subjugate their homeland. Hence the efforts to control the vital supplies of water.
The people of Sindh may not be correct in ascribing ulterior motives to Punjab in what may rightly be described as a very serious case of national survival, but both Punjab and WAPDA (which always speaks the same language) have done nothing to allay the doubts and apprehensions of Sindh. By Dismissing offhand the alternate dam sites and other water management strategies as advanced by Sindh Government, and by insisting upon none-other-than-Kalabagh-dam approach, Punjab and Wapda have provoked more mistrust and given birth to bigger doubts in the minds of the people of Sindh. Many examples have been quoted that have caused this deep mistrust :-
1. No tapping of water was ever indicated
Initially the KBD was reported to be a storage reservoir only. But after the oil crises of 1973, hydel power generation was added as the second function of KBD. The PC-II (update Feb 1989) says:
Quote, “The oil crises of 1973 and the steep rise in the price of imported oil has had a most significant impact on implementing the KDB project and on its primary role, the priority shifting from irrigation supplies to its hydro-power generation capability” unquote.
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